October Home Sales Continue Downtrend

December 1, 2018

October Home Sales Continue Downtrend

October new-home sales continued to decline, extending a downtrend in sales and an uptrend in available inventory that began months earlier. According to Zillow, October new-home sales fell 8.9 percent from the month prior and 12 percent from a year prior. At the same time, inventory of new homes for sale rose 4.3 percent from the month prior and was up 17.5 percent over a year earlier.

“Since the end of 2017, new-home sales volumes have endured their longest slide since 2010, when the market was still very much in the grips of the recession,” write Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas [1]. “For a time in 2017, it looked as thought the new-home sales market was going to bust through the 700,000 annual sales barrier…. Instead, new-home sales look set to bump around between the 500,000 and 600,000 annual sales volume at which they’ve been stuck for several years,” he continued.

Terrazzas warned rising mortgage rates will continue to erode buyers’ home budgets, and this may not be counterbalanced by slight declines in the cost of labor and materials thanks to “pervasive labor shortages.” He did predict “localized rebound” in new construction as homeowners return to areas affected by natural disasters in the Southeast and on the West Coast. However, he said, “It won’t be enough to offset the longer-term weights holding down homebuilding.”

“This is going to be a long-term issue because overall affordability is not improving,” said Bruce McNeilage, CEO of Kinloch Partners and one of the nation’s premier build-to-rent providers to institutional investors [2]. “With interest rates rising and buyers being more willing to sit on the sidelines and wait for lower prices, the available inventory volumes may rise but we will not necessarily immediately see an improvement in housing affordability,” he explained. McNeilage noted new construction is veering more toward the build-to-rent model because many would-be buyers are opting to place home purchases on hold due to uncertainty about the housing market but do not necessarily want to remain in apartments instead of single-family residences.

Do you think declining home sales are a bad thing?

By Bruce McNeilage July 28, 2025
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By Bruce McNeilage July 28, 2025
There have been a lot of headlines about the number of investors, both large and small, snapping up homes as investments. Kinloch Partners co-founder & CEO Bruce McNeilage explains who these investors are and why so many are getting into housing. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here . Click the image above to watch the entire video. 00:00 Speaker A When we talk about these investors moving in, what kind of investors are we talking about, Bruce? Are we talking about relatively are these smaller investors, or these private equity players? Who are they? 00:18 Bruce Sure, they're all the above, right? They're small mom and pop investors. They're buying four and five houses here and there. They're mid-tier companies like us. We'd like to do another 100 to 200 houses by the end of the year. They're larger players, and then there are the ones in between. Now, family offices, sovereign wealth funds, the hedge funds, the REITs, everybody is coming into the market right now. There's been too much money on the sidelines, and we're really starting to see these builders benefit because they have a lot of excess inventory, and folks like us can come in, clean up their inventory here in the next few months, and really uh help them with their profits and buy up their inventory. 01:06 Speaker A So that's interesting, Bruce. So part of the trend here is its home builders have a lot of inventory. That's part of the the driver here. 01:18 Bruce Yeah, absolutely. Mom and pops are having a tough time qualifying for mortgages, right? The interest rates are just too high in the last 52 weeks. You know, you look at Freddie Mac numbers, they've basically stayed the same. We're hovering just under 7%. People cannot afford mortgages right now. So the next best thing is to rent a brand new house. Well, who do you rent a brand new house from? The people that have bought one, or the people that have built one. And so we're really offering something that most people can't get, a brand new house, instead of buying it, you're renting it. 02:07 Speaker A And the smaller investor, Bruce, in particular, that this was really the trend the kind of journal pointed out here, is there a reason right now, Bruce, that smaller investors would be more active? 02:25 Bruce Yeah, sure. So small investors can borrow money from credit unions. They can borrow against their 401k. They can do a lot of different things that larger investors aren't going to do. And when you see the the price of houses coming down, when you see the inventory come uh going up, and when you also see all these builder incentives, it really helps a small investor get in the game, so to speak, because they are getting these discounts from these builders. 03:05 Speaker A And is the business model there, Bruce, for the smaller investor? It's what, you move in, buy a home, make some modest renovations, rent it with the aim of of one day selling it. Is that the idea? 03:22 Bruce Yeah, most people are looking at either buying a new house or what I call a used house and fixing it up. You cash flow it for a number of years, let's say three to five years. It goes up in value, and then you sell it. A lot of people are just in this for the capital gains. Some people are in it for the income and capital gains, but the name of the game is to have positive cash flow from day one and then sell it at a profit at the end. 03:54 Speaker A Is there are there advantages, Bruce, a smaller investor, relatively would have over a private equity player? 04:08 Bruce Yeah, I think they can be nimble. I don't think they have the same rules. They certainly don't have investment committees. And so they can choose to buy a house, rent a house, sell a house, and they can pay what they want to pay. You know, again, they don't have a mandate from an investment committee. So if they want to buy something with a lower cap rate, if they want to buy something with a higher cap rate or something big, small, uh you know, older, uh newer, they can be as nimble as they want where the larger funds can't. They have mandates. You know, they have a buy box and uh and and they've got some restrictions, and we do too. 04:57 Speaker A I'm sure, Bruce, there are some folks who are watching this right now who think, well, hold on a second. Doesn't this trend, doesn't this thing that Bruce and Josh are talking about ultimately make it that much tougher for regular Americans, Bruce, to come in and bid and compete?  05:25 Bruce Yeah, so you would think that, but what we're doing is we're not taking inventory out of the market. For us, we're building brand new houses, not taking inventory out of the market. And then these houses are available in the MLS. You know, you buy houses from the different large builders. Anybody can buy those houses today. It's just people are not. So investors are coming in, cleaning up this inventory, buying the houses, but quite frankly, they're available to everyone. It's just people can't afford them. So it's buying up the houses and making more stock available again, not to buy, but for people that can't buy but to rent.
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